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Potentially Deliverable Scope

This visual shows the range of scope that is likely to be delivered by a specified date. It's a useful way to engage business stakeholders and help them focus on the 'marginal scope' - i.e. that may or may not be delivered.

Step 1 - Select the data

Select the project data as normal with the select data panel. Filtering by area path, iteration path, tags and work item type (if using TFS/VSTS)

Once you have loaded the chart you will need to adjust the chart-specific settings.

  1. Choose the rate of sampling the historical data, in this case every 14 days
  2. Select the dates that the history will start from - and then the date in the future that you want to know the forecast scope for
  3. Choose the 'Done' States. These will be excluded in the forecast of future deliveries, because the items with these states have been 'Done'
  4. Choose the Work In Progress (WIP) states. The calculation will look at the sum of effort points of the items in these states and assume that half of that work has been completed.
  5. You can override the historical throughput rate with a manual one, for example, if there is not much history.
  6. Decide on the amount of the history of the project to use and the Optimistic and Pessimistic standard deviations. i.e. We look at the throughput (aka velocity) per 14 day period


Step 2 - Interpret the output

You will see a chart like that below.

  1. The items in the backlog are ordered in the same way as on the board. You can click on the item to open it in TFS / VSTS or JIRA
  2. You can see in the key that the WIP states have been defined as 'In testing' and 'In Development'


How far down the backlog will we get?

  1. The 'probable' line uses the 'pessimistic' throughput rate from the chart settings tab. Depending on the standard deviations you chose this could represent something like a 90% confidence.
  2. The 'possible' line uses the 'optimistic' throughput rate